We model a sonic black-hole analog in a quasi-one-dimensional Bose-Einstein condensate, using a Gross-Pitaevskii equation matching the configuration of a recent experiment by Steinhauer [Nat. Phys. 10, 864 (2014)]. The model agrees well with important features of the experimental observations, demonstrating their hydrodynamic nature. We find that a zero-frequency bow wave is generated at the inner (white-hole) horizon, which grows in proportion to the square of the background condensate density. The relative motion of the black-and white-hole horizons produces a Doppler shift of the bow wave at the black hole, where it stimulates the emission of monochromatic Hawking radiation. The mechanism is confirmed using temporal and spatial windowed Fourier spectra of the condensate. Mean field behavior similar to that in the experiment can thus be fully explained without the presence of self-amplifying Hawking radiation.